Sales pipeline weighted forecast calculator
A weighted forecast multiplies the open value in each stage by the chance you give that stage, then adds the stages. The raw pipeline is larger because it counts every deal as if it will close.
Formula
Weighted value of a stage = open value × win probability Weighted forecast = sum of the weighted stage values Open pipeline = sum of the open values Implied win rate = weighted forecast / open pipeline Coverage = open pipeline / quota Weighted coverage = weighted forecast / quota Gap to quota = weighted forecast − quota
Each stage's weighted value is rounded to the cent, and the forecast is the sum of those rounded values.
Worked example
Leads of $10,000.00 at 10% contribute $1,000.00. Proposals of $8,000.00 at 50% contribute $4,000.00. Negotiation of $4,000.00 at 75% contributes $3,000.00.
The open pipeline is $22,000.00. The weighted forecast is $8,000.00, an implied win rate of 36.36%. Those three probabilities are a sample, not a recommended close rate.
FAQ
What is a weighted forecast?
Each stage's open value is multiplied by the chance you assign to winning a deal in that stage. The weighted forecast is the sum of those products. It is smaller than the raw pipeline unless every deal is certain. A 10,000 lead at 10% contributes 1,000, not 10,000.
Where do the probabilities come from?
You type them. A useful start is your own close rate for that stage over the last few quarters, not a generic chart. The sample uses 10%, 50%, and 75% only to show the arithmetic. If a stage mixes deals you will close this month with deals that will slip, split it.
Does this predict the month's cash?
No. It does not know close dates, payment terms, or which deals will slip. It answers a narrower question: if these stages close at these rates, what value is that? Cash still depends on when the invoice is raised and when it is paid.
What is pipeline coverage?
If you enter a quota, coverage is the open pipeline divided by that quota, and weighted coverage uses the weighted forecast instead. A coverage ratio is a capacity check. It is not a promise that the period will land on the quota. Leave quota blank to skip it.
The result is a planning estimate from the numbers on this page. It is not an invoice, a tax filing, or a marketplace statement.